New projections from University of Washington COVID-19 study adjusts projected death toll from virus

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(WRBL) – A new update to the COVID-19 study run by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows that the death toll the study projects has fallen slightly nationally to 81,766 from 82,141.

While the projected death toll by Aug. 4 has gone down, the expected number of deaths per day across the United States has risen from a peak at 2,271 daily to 3,130 on April 16.

Data and Graphic from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Across the country, the study’s projections still show a shortage of hospital resources for coronavirus patients, with a shortage of 36,654 beds and 16,123 ICU beds, with 24,828 ventilators still needed for U.S. patients.

Those numbers are slightly different from our last look at the shortages expected. Previously, the study’s projections show an overall shortage of hospital resources to hit 61,509 beds and 15,103 ICU beds, with a needed 26,753 ventilators to treat coronavirus patients in the United States.

The number of hospital beds needed has shrunk, but the beds need in the ICU is now showing a higher expected shortage. Ventilator shortages do show a small drop in how many are missing, based on projections.

Data and Graphic from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Alabama is now showing a peak of 43 deaths per day to the coronavirus, down slightly from the last check’s 57 deaths per day by April 20. That estimated peak has also changed, coming in now on April 22.

Data and Graphic from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

The state is expected to be short only 340 ventilators, a change from the previously expected 5,610 beds, 857 ICU beds and 686 ventilators to make it through this peak, with a shortage of 383 ICU beds.

While Alabama’s projections have shown more resources will be available and a lower expected number of daily deaths at the peak, Georgia is seeing an increase in deaths.

Previously, Murray’s data predicted a need for 8,916 beds and 1,344 ICU beds, with 1,075 ventilators needed through the peak in Georgia. The data shows an expected shortage of 594 beds and 755 ICU beds.

Now, the data is expecting a shortage of 743 ICU beds and 1,133 ventilators needed. The needed hospital beds now have more available than the study thinks will be necessary for treatment.

Data and Graphic from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Georgia’s peak deaths per day has also changed, rising to 137 per day by April 21 from 84 per day by April 22.

Data and Graphic from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

In the state, Murray’s latest projections show a total of 3,413 deaths by Aug. 4, which is another increase compared to the last check-in, where the study expected 2,777 Georgian deaths by the summer.

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