2021 Atlantic hurricane season on pace to match, maybe beat the ’20 season

Weather

COLUMBUS, Ga. (WRBL) – The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is underway and a lot has already happened in just one month.

Through the span between mid-May to the end of June, we have had 4 named storms across the Atlantic, starting with Ana and progressing to Danny this past week.

However, two days ago we not only made history, but we also got some insight into how this season could progress.

On Thursday morning, Elsa was officially named off the coast of South America. This marked the fifth named storm of this season, but it’s also the earliest period of time where an “E” named storm was given for a Tropical Storm in Hurricane Season history.

The previous record was set last year when Tropical Storm Edouard formed on July 6, thus beating the record by 5 days.

Along with Elsa becoming an “E” named storm earlier than any other previous season, Elsa has officially upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane this morning. Not only is this the strongest July hurricane in the eastern Caribbean Sea since Hurricane Emily in 2005, but it continues to outpace the mark set last year.

When compared once again to the 2020 season, the earliest tropical storm to be upgraded into a Hurricane was Hanna which developed hurricane-like conditions on July 25, a mark that the 2021 season has beaten by 23 days.

Looking back at June as well, we continued to see history made where we saw three different named storms forming, with Bill, Claudette, and Danny forming across the Atlantic.

This past June tied the record for the most active June in Hurricane Season history, tying the 1886, 1909, 1936, and 1968 seasons, respectively. This is an interesting development given that June rarely sees the development of tropical storms and/or hurricanes.  

When looking at this past June and even how July is currently setting up to be, this could be seen as an alarming statistic given how historically active the 2020 season was. The 2020 season alone, in comparison, formed a record breaking 30 named storms throughout its season.

Of those 30 storms, 14 of them developed into hurricanes and 7 of those 14 hurricanes developed into major hurricanes, which tied it for the most major hurricanes formed in one season.

While the 2021 season is still very early in its lifespan, we are starting to see some early signs that this season could potentially match, even outmatch the 2020 Hurricane Season.

To see these many storms develop in June is definitely a wake up call and it also gives us a deeper perspective of how this season is shaping up in the perceivable future.

If this trend continues throughout the rest of the season, we could potentially see over 20 named storms by the end of this season. That would put the 2021 season as one of the most active hurricane seasons ever, a baffling statistic given that we started recording Hurricane Seasons back in 1851.

Its important to keep in mind that going forward it is still too early to tell how active this season will be. While it has been record breaking, it is still too early to tell how bad this Hurricane Season will be given that it lasts until the end of November.

We must continue to monitor the tropics and see how this season matches up, especially when we get to the more active months like September. But, at this current moment, the 2021 Season is already turning out to be an active season and it will be interesting to see how it will continue to develop later in the year.

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