The model trend has been consistent since 19 Jan (severe weather & the third weekend in a row for the weather team) and the MOS data has been adjusting well in advance on the long range models. Based on all MOS temperatures and wind profiles, there will be a severe weather set-up across north central Alabama Saturday night at this time (All Subject to change-timing of course) but we need to be WEATHER AWARE as per our plan and be vigilant to get the word out early but “no hype or scare tactics”, just the facts until I’m confident with a 48 to 36 hour forecast.
Central Alabama-Late Saturday…Watching along I-85 and south into Phenix City first…
Possibly into local DMA …All of East Central Alabama through West Central Georgia by sunrise Monday morning.
WHAT I EXPECT:
Multicellular storms may produce hail, strong winds, brief tornadoes, and/or flooding. A squall line is a group of storms arranged in a line, often accompanied by “squalls” of high wind and heavy rain. You hear us describe this as a QLCS.
This right now is not looking as potent as last Sunday’s but we will have a bit more CAPE or energy from upper 70s to near 80, possibly Saturday, which gives this next set-up enough to warrant severe weather.