COLUMBUS, GA (WRBL) — NOAA has released its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The agency predicts a 65% chance of an above normal season and expects between 3-6 major hurricanes.

This is the 7th consecutive year that NOAA has predicted an above normal season. 

Source: NOAA

Why above average?

Part of the reason may be due to an ongoing La Nina. During La Nina years, there is a subtle decrease in upper-level winds. This decrease in upper-level winds or wind shear will allow hurricanes to maintain strength as they form.

La Nina also influences other circulations in the atmosphere that allow air to rise or sink. In the case for hurricane formation, sinking air and cooler waters over the Eastern Pacific means rising air and warmer waters in the Atlantic. This means that rising air, plus warmer waters equals more storminess for the Atlantic. 

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA will release an updated prediction in early August, just before the historical peak.