The following times below is the best analysis for when the expected 2 rounds of severe weather will be present. There can still be showers and a few storms between both windows.
*There will be showers potentially before sunrise and leading-up to the severe weather windows listed below:
*What is certain will be the torrential rainfall 2-3” with both rounds-Main threat for local street flooding and the actual warm front will determine this and where and when the severe weather strikes
ROUND #1-WEATHER AWARE Saturday 9/8CT AM- 1/NoonCT:The set-up right now is up to a slight risk or 2 out of 5 (confidence) for isolated severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind with low level-shear, small hail, and a low risk for tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
ROUND #2-WEATHER AWARE Saturday 4/3CT PM- 8/7CT:The set-up right now is up to a slight risk or 2 out of 5 (confidence) for isolated severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind with low level-shear, small hail, and a low risk for tornadoes and heavy rainfall.
The latest analysis has the physical front, with a bow echo forming with the first round, and significant or elevated (Severe) storms.
The second wave may be diminished in strength due to the cooler air (from the 1stround of storms) but heavy rainfall will be present, with the surface low. This is more unidirectional compared to the first round, which means less spin and more outflowing damaging wind.
Sunday through Wednesday of the following week clears out before other front sweeps through Thursday, April 29.
Plus, you can always download the WRBL First Alert Radar app for the latest forecast: