The forecast continues to remain warmer than average, with temperatures Saturday climbing into the upper 80s. Late Saturday across northwest and northern Alabama there’s a risk for severe storms. From the last 48 hours the timing of Sunday’s front enters in the morning and exits our southwest counties from Columbus in the early afternoon, with brief showers and gusty winds. Cooler or more average weather will follow.
THE LATEST-SUNDAY: First let’s revisit Sunday, with the weakening front that we all have been consistent seeing and still will happen, the limited moisture is what decreases the storm threat. From 8/7 CT AM Chambers County will see the initial line of showers falling apart, but as always think beyond the general model consensus and be mindful of a remote chance for anything sub-severe. Without the moisture available there may still be a very isolated threat Sunday afternoon, with some heating south and east of Columbus for a sporadic elevated storm, with the physical front adding just enough lift, etc.
WEATHER AWARE TUESDAY: Atthis time we are not seeing overwhelming evidence for CAPE, shear, or both for explosive storms but this is when we as meteorologists have to consider the set-up of the deepening low, and scooping up plenty of moisture ahead of the front. These are some of the ingredients we are not seeing Sunday but I will bet as we move closer to Tuesday the models will become more in-line with a Marginal-Slight Risk and we will keep an eye out for SPC likely on Greg’s shift Sunday…
Tuesday’s storm system still has the makings of severe weather but I’m waiting for the weekend to better determine the strength and shear of this system, with a marginal risk for severe weather right now. I may change this for the 11pm, so stay tuned.
Mid to upper 40s and lower 70s looking good for readings next week.